This is all prognostication from someone who is not particularly insightful or qualified. Take it for what you paid for it.

  • I actually love this election because it underscored how nuanced and complex these phenomena are. Of course, that doesn’t even slow down the very real need for every interested party to shape a narrative that serves their interests about the results.
  • Super happy and proud of the over 100 women going to Congress and that so many of them are women of color and/or LGBTQ.
  • Super happy about the obvious implications about Dems winning the House.
  • Missouri great thing? Brianna Lennon is the new Boone County Clerk, and that is undeniably good.
  • Ditto for Nicole Galloway holding on to Missouri Auditor.
  • Likewise, very pleased with Tim Kaine’s victory and the local victories here in Alexandria.
  • Let’s go around the competitive races at the Gov and Senator level right quick
    • in MO, I’m not surprised by the inexorable slide from Bellweather to Tennessee/Indiana. Those states are much more comparable to MO than is say, OH or WI. I’m still sad that McCaskill lost, and I do not believe that it was a fault of messaging or GOTV. I think the operative factor is that she was drawing dead from jump street and her time was up. Other than catching Trump and Hawley with a live boy in Springfield MO, nothing was going to depress GOP turnout enough to get her over the line.
    • There’s a related point here: The GOP is fully and irrecovably the Party of Trump, no ifs ands or buts about it - there’s no Republican I’m aware of that ran away from Trump and survived. Related; Trump’s hold on Trump voters is impressive - looking at TN Sen and other places where lots of attention from the WH definitely had an effect.
    • Jacky Rosen is an OG. Taking out Dean Heller in NV is a big deal and can’t be overlooked in importance.
    • Laura Kelly is a friend of friends’ mother, and I’ll always love her for ending Kris Kobach’s career.
    • Fuck Joe Manchin
    • Also, fuck Ted Cruz, but I can’t really be sure I’m surprised by Beto being unable to unseat him. What Beto did do was pull up every other race below him and carried Texas Dems across the finish line in ways that only looking statewide you might not notice. Last night was a huge win for Texas Dems, even if statewide wasn’t fruitful.
    • Relaed point: over 300 state legislative seats across the country flipped from Republican to Democratic.
    • Brian Kemp deserves to be sued out of his mind for the shenanigans that voters in GA had to endure. As of this writing, not clear if there will be a runoff, but god willing Stacey Abrams womps his ass.
    • How did Bill Nelson run ahead of Andrew Gillium? Bradley effect?
    • Tester held on, which pokes the Trump as Collosseus narrative.
    • Not necessarily any one race in WI, MI, or PA to single out (Slotkin, Barnes, and Scanlon jump off the page though), but big gains in turnout and participation from Dems in those states. Which bodes well for 2020
    • And there were some interesting ballot initiatives across the country. In particular, FL’s amendment 4 which restores voting rights to 1.4 million former felons is the largest single expansion of voting rights since the VRA. Louisiana passed an amendment requiring a unanimous jury for felony convictions, rectifying a Jim Crow era bar that sent far too many to prision.

Speaking of 2020: I think it’s the dumbest parlor game in American politics to speculate about the next Presidential election, but people will ask anyway:

  • I hope that it is not a party elder. Much as I love and respect Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, they obviously bring with them baggage which doesn’t say change to voters.
  • Bernie bros can join the party or GTFO.
  • I don’t know that anyone else is ready for primetime yet. I have excitement but real doubts about the obvious contenders right now. My presidential primary vote is up for grabs. Someone has to step up and show me that they are the leader we need - I don’t know who that is right now. I don’t know who best embodies our values or presents the best contrast with Trump; I don’t know who can build a national organization to not just win but help build the party.

Just something to keep in mind as we see things unfold over this session of congress and the 2020 primaries: